Thursday 15 February 2018

“The Ace in the Pack” …. But with More to Come, Hopefully. The Change of Plan Pays Off with Acey Milan

As anyone who reads this blog regularly will know, I’ve been astounded by the huge increases in bloodstock prices for National Hunt horses in recent years. Horses that used to be selling for £30-40k are now going for £60-100k, and there is no shortage of very rich owners who are prepared to pay considerable multiples on top of that. The average hammer price now for a three-year-old store horse at the top sales in Ireland is €50k, so with sales commissions on top, and then maybe a year’s training before you get the horse to the track, you’re knocking on the door of £70k or more on average and, unfortunately, paying that amount of money most definitely doesn’t guarantee you a nice horse. In fact increasingly it looks as though the good horses are being taken out of the equine supply chain very early in their life, and there is no shortage of trainers and agents scouring England, Ireland, France and Germany looking for them.

So, back at the end of 2014, in Owners for Owners we decided to change tack and adopt the policy of “if you can’t beat them, join them”. Rather than buying the majority of our horses as ready-to-go point-to-pointers with some form on the page, we created a new buying plan in conjunction with trainers and agents. The focus shifted to foals, yearlings and the occasional unraced 3yo store so that we had more confidence that we were dealing with a “blank canvas” and not buying into someone else’s problem. Fortunately we found quite a few owners who shared a very similar philosophy and had come to the same conclusions. They all wanted to enjoy the development journey of watching a youngster grow up into a racehorse, and were prepared to fund that for three years or more. Patience became the key virtue, with absolutely no pressure whatsoever to kick on with the youngsters too soon.

In 2014 / 15, we bought the first three foals, all by proven or up-and-coming sires: Milan, Sholokhov and Oscar. We also bought a beautiful year-older Getaway at the same time, and since then two more foals, one by Beat Hollow and one by Mahler, as well as a 3yo by Presenting. Quite an investment in seven youngsters, and inevitably with horses there will be one or two disappointments. However we felt that if we managed to achieve better results than we had been doing with the ready-to-go horses, it would be a vindication of the policy.

I’m not in any way crowing about this because, alas, we did have a tragedy with one of them, which hit all his owners extremely hard. But with one of them, Acey Milan with Anthony Honeyball, we appear to have a seriously smart animal on our hands who won the Listed bumper at Cheltenham and then, last Saturday, following up in the top bumper of the season so far, at Newbury. He annihilated the field, going away to win by 11 lengths, in the process probably establishing himself as the best bumper horse in England and entering the betting as 4th favourite for the Champion Bumper at the Festival. He’s the only four-year-old of the first 20 horses. The last 4yo to win this bumper was Cue Card!! Whether or not we go there will very much depend on whether the horse is in the same form by mid-March, and if he starts to train off in any way after four bumper runs, we’ll put him away and look forward to staying novice hurdles in the autumn. He is running over two miles on heavy ground at the moment but there is a view that he might be better over 2½ miles plus on better ground.

It was obviously amazingly exciting to win the two Listed bumpers as well as one at Wincanton in November, but the real source of pleasure has come from watching Acey Milan develop. When we bought him from Bryan Murphy’s stud near the Dunraven Arms in Co. Limerick, he was pretty small and quite sickly. Anthony and Rachael Honeyball came over to Ireland with us, and when we were shown him we were all very impressed by his beautiful long stride. The deal was done on the basis of that. Nothing in the meantime has changed our view of his conformation and action, and it is a noticeable feature when he’s racing. As you can see in the three photos below, he has developed considerably since, although he is still not a big horse – just a very fluent athlete. We used to joke when he was still a little tiddler that he was saying to us, “Don’t worry – when I grow up I’m going to be a racehorse”. None of us lost the faith, and it is tremendously satisfying to be where we now are. Special mention has to go to his groom all the way through, Chloe Emsley, who as you can see on one of the pictures to the right absolutely adores him. There was a day up on the gallops with Anthony back in the early autumn when Acey Milan was doing a breeze with Regal Encore. Chloe gave him a bit of rein and he shot past his older companion. Anthony just looked at me and said, “Hello …..” We haven’t really looked back since.

We’re just about to start partnering out a couple of new babies and store horses, and if you’d like to get involved in a similar journey, please don’t hesitate to contact me. Here’s hoping we have lots more Aces in the pack.

I am always interested to hear your views so please do leave a comment. If you can't see the comment box at the bottom of this post then navigate to the post using the right hand navigation or click here > and scroll to the bottom of the page. Look forward to hearing your views. Thanks very much for sharing them.

Thursday 1 February 2018

“Money, Money, Money, it’s a Rich Man’s World” (And, Alas, a Poor Man’s): Moral Dilemmas of FOBTs and Bloodstock Sales

In last month’s blog I had a look at the prices vs. returns of NH horses at the Tattersalls’ Cheltenham Sale in May 2016. The total spend including purchasing the horses and then training them came out at £1,922,300. Yet they only went on to win five races in total, and the measly prize-money of £63,169, at an average per horse of £6,317. That gave a total return on investment (or as I like to refer to it, Return on Ownership) of a staggeringly dismal 3.2%.

This struck a chord with a number of blog readers who sent me similar examples, including Tattersalls’ Book 1, October 2015. I’m sure you can guess the record of the top 10 there as well. Many of you, I know, will shrug your shoulders and say that if rich people want to waste such prodigious amounts of money, that’s up to them. But before I list out those lots, why not just reflect on the moral dilemma that is now facing politicians and in turn British Racing over Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs).

The Department for Culture, Media & Sport launched a review 15 months ago in response to widespread concerns about the addictive nature of FOBTs. This culminated in a decision in October 2017 to cut the maximum stake from £100 to somewhere between £2 and £50. The Department then launched a 12-week consultation period which came to an end last month. The review also encompassed wider socially responsible measures to protect the vulnerable. This is definitely a case of a poor person’s world.

The Sunday Times led a scoop front page announcing that the Government was going to cut the FOBT stakes to a maximum of £2. Many of you, I know, will strongly agree with this. However it didn’t take long for the bookmaking industry and British Racing to examine the impact of a £2 maximum stake. Whether the figures are accurate or not I don’t know, but Martin Cruddace, boss of Arena Racing Company, caught the headlines when he forecast that an FOBT limit reduction would lead to 4,000 to 5,000 betting shop closures. Some took a more cautious view that maybe only 3,000 shops would close, but apparently the average shop pays £30,000 for media rights so the loss of income could easily be in excess of £90 million per annum with a view that, in turn, at least £55 million could be axed from prize-money.

Clearly, this is a very sobering story and it cannot be easy to deal with. Racing needs every pound that it can get its hands on, but surely not through the “crack cocaine” of FOBTs. A moral dilemma indeed.

In this context, the lunacy of bloodstock prices at sales such as Tattersalls almost appear like comic relief. Here are the top 10 from October 2015.

Lot 304, Dubawi – Loveisallyouneed. £2,205,000. Hasn’t raced, prize-money zero.

Lot 30, Galileo – A Z Warrior. £1,365,000. Named Key To My Heart. Won twice, prize-money £47,652.

Lot 43, Galileo – Alluring Park. £1,312,500. Named Douglas Macarthur. Won twice, prize-money £122,189.

Lot 255, Galileo – Jacqueline Quest. £1,260,000. Named World War. Won once, prize-money £26,068.

Lot 254, Oasis Dream – Izzy Top. £1,155,000. Named Dreamfield. Won twice, prize-money £12,291.

Lot 293, Galileo – Like A Dame. £1,050,000. Named Longing. Won once, prize-money £9,285.

Lot 71, Dubawi – Badee’a. £945,000. Hasn’t raced, prize-money zero.

Lot 204, Dark Angel – Folga. £866,250. Named Dirayah. Hasn’t won, prize-money £385.

Lot 439, Street Cry – Shastye. £840,000. Named Secret Soul. Hasn’t won, prize-money £,684.

Lot 107, Oasis Dream – Caphene. £787,500. Named Watchman. Hasn’t raced, prize-money zero.

Dear, oh dear. If we add a million or so for training fees and commissions, then the ROI / Return on Ownership is 1.72% on a total prize-money of £219,554. Indeed it must be even worse than the return on FOBTs, which says something.

Just to finish on a sobering note though the gross gambling yield, i.e. the amount kept by the betting shop operators after winnings are paid out, in the year to March 2017 was £1.39 billion from traditional betting ….. and a staggering £1.86 billion from FOBTs. It will be very surprising indeed if the Government doesn’t crack down hard on these machines and in turn, bookmakers ….. and I’m afraid, on racing’s income.

I am always interested to hear your views so please do leave a comment. If you can't see the comment box at the bottom of this post then navigate to the post using the right hand navigation or click here > and scroll to the bottom of the page. Look forward to hearing your views. Thanks very much for sharing them.