Coping with the Covid-19 Crisis – Massive Shock to the Country, the Population and the Racing Ecosystem

With eight years’ experience of writing the Owner’s Opinion blog, our 1st April edition normally writes itself. One strand is trapping the reader into an April fool (and you’d be surprised how many big names have succumbed), while the other is covering contentious issues from the Cheltenham Festival. This year, I suppose, the April fool would have been about owners offering to pay trainers their fees in toilet rolls; while I was itching to write about the dominance of top trainers at the Festival, not least the notable fact of 60% of the races (16 in all) being won by novices and the considerable advantage that these trainers have in being able to assess which horses are massively ahead of the handicapper. But the Prime Minister’s sombre announcement on Monday 23rd March that emergency measures were to be introduced to lock down the country quickly parked such irrelevancies.

As of the end of March, there have been 784,000 infections worldwide from the Covid-19 virus, resulting in 37,000 deaths. It took 67 days for the first 100,000 infections; 11 days for the second; four days for the third, and that miserable exponential climb is continuing. Some politicians, particularly President Trump, have been complacent in the extreme (at the end of January he commented that “We have it totally under control. It’s just one person coming in from China”, before expecting the US to be back to normal by Easter and even coming up with a mind-numbing comment that “People have died, who have never died before”). After a disappointingly slow and typically British response of “Keep calm and carry on”, during which the country wasted a vital three months of planning, testing and production of ventilators, the gravity of the situation has been fully embraced by the vast majority of the population through lockdown and social distancing. Sadly there have been 22,141 infections to date in the UK, resulting in 1,408 deaths, but this rate does appear to be declining slightly. We all pray that this trend continues, although the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jenny Harries, believes that it could be six months before all the current social distancing restrictions are lifted.

Is it really only just over a fortnight since we were cheering on Al Boum Photo in his thoroughly game back-to-back win in the Gold Cup? For virtually all of us, this will have been the most incredible few weeks of our lives. The lockdown has already had a profound impact on everyone, and the shutters have come down on almost every business sector. A whole plantation of money trees has been found, and an arsenal of fiscal bazookas launched: $2 trillion of funds in the US; €750 billion in the EU; and £330 billion in the UK. Central banks and governments have made it clear that “spend, spend, spend” is the order of the day and they will do “whatever it takes” to bail out otherwise viable businesses. We’ve had a national “clap session” for the NHS and 700,000 people have volunteered to help support them. This is definitely the UK at war – against a terrible virus.

It was inevitable, therefore, that racing would be abandoned. During the three days of 16th to 18th March we went from racing behind closed doors to total suspension. The same happened in Ireland on 25th March. Six Nations rugby was cancelled; the Dubai World Cup postponed to 2021; the Tokyo Olympics put back to July next year; and we won’t be cheering on the winners of the trio of Grand Nationals at Fairyhouse, Aintree or Ayr. The BHA handled the situation well and avoided the reputational damage which would have ensued if racing had struggled to carry on at a time of national emergency. As ever there were a number of strong counter-arguments, particularly from former BHA Chairman Peter Savill who felt that racing had missed a huge opportunity to engage a new audience and significantly expand betting turnover, while Mark Johnston felt that it was a “grave mistake to suspend racing”.

The £4bn industry of racing employs 6,500 racing staff, looks after 14,000 racehorses and directly supports a huge ecosystem of full-time and self-employed staff. The seismic shock of lockdown is still rippling through the industry and no-one can predict the damage that will be done to racecourses, trainers, bookmakers, sales houses, breeders, consignors, stable staff, jockeys, valets, bloodstock agents, farriers, equine physiotherapists, specialist vets, feed suppliers …. and of course owners, who for the most part will continue to pay out training or keep fees even though there is no prospect of seeing their horses out on the track in the immediate future. Encouragingly, though, there has been a massive collaborative effort from all the stakeholders in racing with a constant stream of advice and a multi-workstream “industry plan” focused on racing’s resumption. Racing seems to work best in adversity, and full marks to all the groups who have rallied round.

At a personal level I’m close to Martin Keighley’s yard and with the active support of key owners we created and implemented a business continuity plan that is now fully operational around two phases. The first covers the period from 1st April to 31st May, when the majority of horses will have been turned out into the paddocks and only a very small number being kept in training and “ticking over” so that if racing does resume they can take part at summer jumps meetings. The second phase is from 1st June to 31st August when hopefully most horses will return to full training and, most importantly, the full team will come back into normal employment after two months being furloughed under the government’s emergency funding measures. Every single employee, owner and supplier was briefed on the plan within 48 hours of its creation and there has been a hugely positive response – not least from Martin’s owners who have been tremendously supportive.

In some ways, although it has been a huge challenge for National Hunt yards – not least because such plans have led to a 50% reduction in income – it is more straightforward for them than for training colleagues on the Flat, all of whom were focused on getting their horses out on the track in April / May from the traditional start of the season with the Lincoln at Doncaster on Saturday 28th March. Do these trainers continue, or stand their horses down while awaiting more clarity on when racing will resume? The impact on the Racing Pattern cannot yet really be evaluated – what will happen to the Classics, and will Royal Ascot take place?

Very detailed planning has been taking place on the potential resumption of racing, although it is most unlikely to restart until the viral infection rate has begun to decline significantly. Apparently the plans include racing operating behind closed doors through regional hubs in the North, Midlands and South of the country with consecutive fixtures taking place at these tracks over, say, a week at a time, and it would be easy to imagine a considerable number of maiden two-year-old races and jumpers’ bumpers being held. These plans are designed to ensure minimal impact on the NHS, and there will be reduced field sizes and only the most experienced jockeys participating, to reduce the risk of injury. Essential racing staff and jockeys would stay at hotels (so it could be that the racecourses selected would be those with such facilities either on site or nearby) and the horses would be transported to each track daily.

The government has been encouraging the industry to develop such “self-help plans” so that racing is ready to return at the earliest possibility. Although there have been no guidelines on other plans, it is to be hoped that these will emerge soon, particularly on racing-specific financial support. In particular, the Levy Board sits on reserves of over £45m, and the Racing Foundation a further £82m, which could help considerably. In the meantime all the emergency financial measures introduced by the chancellor Rishi Sunak (who as the member for Richmond is well aware of racing’s requirements, not least in Middleham) have been seized on by trainers, racecourses, contract and self-employed staff, and also the BHA who have furloughed 200 of their 260 staff, saving £1m a month.

A crisis of epic proportions! It is to be hoped that most of us will emerge relatively unscathed, and the number one priority clearly must be the health and welfare of the population of the country. Survival is paramount, before we all turn our attention to restoring the country’s economy. The effects of the crisis are bound to be felt for many years to come, and the racing industry will be buffeted in the same way as most other business sectors. Let’s hope there aren’t too many casualties. Unfortunately the industry was not in good financial shape going into the crisis, and it’s hard to imagine it will come out of it without there being significant damage. In the short term – stay safe and stay at home.

At a personal level we will all be trying to find solace and ways of surviving the challenges of social distancing and isolation. Those who know me well are aware of my enthusiasm and passion for fine wine. My wife and I have introduced a weekend wine tasting of the very finest in our cellar. Last Saturday we savoured the delights of a 1999 Maximin Grunhauser Abtsberg Riesling Auslese, Cask Nr. 165, Von Schubert. It was sublime and awe-inspiring. They always say that you shouldn’t waste a crisis – and we certainly don’t intend to, on the vinous front. May you find similar pleasures.

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Cheltenham Festival, Welfare Issues and the BHA – Time for Peace to Break Out in Our Sport

Oh dear, the mayhem of May-hem. What a period we’re going through. There’s been a calamitous loss of authority and leadership; no shortage of anger and alienation; a nationwide sense of disillusionment, with partisan groups feeling abandoned or betrayed; a permanent stand-off between experts, technocrats and bureaucrats vs. the populus and the professionals. And that’s just British Racing, never mind parliament.

Hard on the heels of Bombardier Beckett hurling the grenades out of the trainer trenches over prize-money, the Cheltenham Festival, and particularly the National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase over 3m 7½f, triggered an explosion of incendiary comments, letters and articles revolving around the need for “trainers to take back control” over welfare issues. Before dealing with that though, let’s at least celebrate the joy of this year’s Festival, and particularly one of the most emotional and uplifting hours that I’ve ever experienced in jumps racing when Bryony Frost won the Ryanair on Frodon and then the wonderful Andrew Gemmell’s horse Paisley Park won the Stayers’ Championship under a jockey who we regularly use, Aidan Coleman, for Emma Lavelle. The Thursday of the Festival is normally a quieter day sandwiched between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but this year was quite extraordinary. Racing could do far worse than create a whole series of videos around these two races and all the personalities involved, because they demonstrate how uplifting and joyous National Hunt racing can be. The “antis” of our sport, particularly Animal Aid, managed to raise 105,000 signatures in their petition to government, and that scared the living daylights out of the BHA. Just imagine how many supporters of NH racing would sign up to a campaign #IloveJumpsRacing, if such a mechanism existed, with links to the happy scenes from the Festival. Indeed, a key message is the need for racing to stand proud and promote itself to the British public. We have nothing to hide and are making a huge contribution to the happiness of the nation and its economy. On that note, I saw an interesting piece that the Festival contributes at least £100m to the local region, in which I live. Bravo!

I watched the National Hunt Chase with a group of friends, and we were all uncomfortable with what we witnessed this year. Eighteen horses took part: one unseated rider, five were pulled up, eight fell, there were four finishers and one of the fallers, the favourite Ballyward, died. In four of the last five runnings there have been fatalities. This race was one of carnage, and with far too much whip-flailing. Immediately after the race, three jockeys – Rob James, Noel McParlan and Declan Lavery – picked up a total of 37 days’ suspension. No horseman could or should have tolerated what happened in this race, and it was right to ban these riders. However the stewards made a fundamental mistake by concentrating on Declan Lavery, finishing third on Jerrysback and “continuing to ride when it appeared to be contrary to the horse’s welfare”. This opened the contentious debate about jockeys trying to achieve the best possible placing for their horses vs. the welfare issues associated with the race itself.

A torrent of invective then followed, which I actually found more unpleasant than the incident. Henry Daly ranted away about the BHA being “sorely misguided and misrepresentative of our great sport”, and that trainers should “take our lives and profession into our own hands rather than being led like lambs to the slaughter”. Tony McCoy accused the BHA of “bringing racing into disrepute”, and a wide-ranging, highly critical letter from Mick Channon, Henrietta Knight and Charles Egerton also argued for the need for professionals to “take back control” and consider a vote of no confidence in the BHA. The Irish trainer and commentator Ted Walsh hardly helped the situation by saying that if you didn’t like the reality of jumps racing, then you should “go and watch Peppa Pig”.

It didn’t take long for Lavery to appeal against his suspension, and a Disciplinary Panel soon quashed the sentence, making clear that “ …. the requirement of the rules to pull up tired horses has primacy over the requirement to achieve the best possible placing, and that it is no justification to continue on a horse to finish placed in a race if doing so would be contrary to the horse’s welfare.” While I’m sure we all agree with that decision, unfortunately it is of course a potential cheat’s charter, as it gives licence to a rider to stop a horse and then claim that it was on welfare grounds. Only a matter of time before that happens.

Two issues have surfaced from this whole disagreement. The first is about the role of amateurs at the Festival. Personally I agree with one of our trainers, Anthony Honeyball, that no-one would frame a race such as the National Hunt Challenge Cup. It feels as though it’s time to change the nature of that race, and either restrict it to professionals or at least put in place stricter eligibility criteria for both riders and horses. It no longer feels like a race worthy of the Festival. On a much broader note, is it also time to disallow the use of the whip by conditionals and amateurs for the vast majority, if not all, their races? This feels like an own goal for racing at a time when the whipping of horses has never been more contentious, particularly with Members of Parliament. I’ve resisted the temptation to draw a parallel with the use of Whips at Westminster.

The second issue is clearly to do with the breakdown in relationships between the BHA, trainers and grassroots racing. John Gosden and Philip Freedman have called for common sense and unity to prevail, and for bridges to be built as quickly as possible between the stakeholders of British racing. They are absolutely right to argue for warring factions to come together behind closed doors and resolve their differences. Public ranting and raving does terrible damage to the sport, and is hardly a persuasive lever with government. It may not be popular but we have to acknowledge that the All-Party Racing Group at Westminster is focused almost entirely on equine welfare and no matter what backwoods trainers may think, we cannot turn back the clock on this. The real danger is that the BHA loses the stewardship of welfare and for it to be handed to another, independent group. Doubtless in an attempt to head this off, the BHA has just announced that a new Horse Welfare Board is coming into operation, chaired by Barry Johnson, former President of the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons. A key remit of this Board is to create a new welfare strategy covering the whole industry. Much needed!

Two blogs on the trot have had to deal with trainer rants. I hope there won’t be a third one. Racing must rediscover the core competence of coalition-building …. even if parliament fails completely in its attempts to do so over Brexit. Peace needs to break out in racing, or we’ll have our own Brexit on our hands.

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Two Magnificent Cheltenham Experiences in March – Hopefully Many More To Come

I’ve lost track over the years of how many times in my head I’ve been commentating on one of our horses as it puts in a heroic performance at Prestbury Park. It tends to be something along the lines of: “… and as the field surges down the hill on the final circuit, there’s one horse travelling notably well, hard-held by his rider. Now they’re swinging round the final bend and the horse is still on the bridle. His rider’s aiming straight for the running rail on the stands side, absolutely cruising. Now he’s hit the bottom of the hill …. but has just hit a flat spot and is being challenged on the outside. The rider’s throwing everything at him now and he’s staying on again, almost at the line …..”

Well, finally, in March 2018, I got to experience this sensation, not just once but twice, and although the commentators weren’t quite so positive, coming down the hill on both occasions I thought we had a cracking chance of a winner.

The first horse is Acey Milan, running for Owners for Owners and trained by Anthony Honeyball. He’d put in three excellent winning performances going into the Festival, including two Listed bumpers. Although 4yos don’t have the best of records in the Champion Bumper, he was all the rage on the day and was backed in to favourite, up against Ireland’s best from Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott. There was a bit of an alarum when the horse jinxed going down to the start, giving Aidan Coleman a (thankfully) soft fall, but he managed to hold on to Acey Milan; there were no further mishaps. In the race itself one of the Mullins horses stole five lengths at the start and our horse cruised along behind him in 2nd or 3rd place. He tanked along coming down the hill and looked the winner swinging into the straight, but then lost his action a bit on the desperate ground and for a while looked as though he might fade out of contention, before putting his head down and battling himself into 4th place, with three Mullins horses ahead of us and one Elliott behind. There weren’t many British horses over the week capable of doing that, and indeed Acey Milan is probably the best bumper horse in this country by half a stone. He’s given all the owners a huge amount of fun this season and we’ve lots to look forward to next year, when he could easily shape up into a decent 2½ mile hurdler.

I don’t think that I expected to have a similar excitement, albeit in a very different type of race. Martin and Belinda Keighley’s elder son Freddie, having turned 10, was eligible for his first Pony Club race, which duly happened at Cheltenham last Friday. Freddie and his 16yo pony, Boston Bell Boy (aka “Bubbles”), had been in serious training all year and the whole yard was looking forward to this debut with as much enthusiasm as for a horse running at the Festival. The Keighleys had their own support team at Cheltenham together with a number of key owners, and I have to say that the whole event was incredibly well organised. The young riders had to turn up at 10:00 am for a briefing and a walk of the course; they changed in the normal jockeys’ room, with Freddie hanging his clothes on the peg with Any Currency’s plaque on it; they weighed out on the same machine as the jockeys; were attired in racing silks (in Freddie’s case those of the Martin Keighley Racing Partnerships and Club); paraded before going down the walkway to the start, and then raced down the hill over seven furlongs on a well marked-out section of the course. The commentator picked up quickly that Freddie intended to race handily and within 100 yards he was already in the lead, with only two ponies in behind able to go with him. You probably know what’s coming …. He swung into the straight on the bridle, aimed straight for the stands-side running rail with Bubbles tanking along before hitting a flat spot, losing the lead but then staying on again under a great ride from Freddie to be beaten only half a length into second. A magnificent debut, and Freddie’s smile when he came in said absolutely everything. Once prizes had been received, the whole group repaired to The Hollow Bottom in Guiting Power for a lunch that carried through almost to dinner-time. A magnificent way to start Easter, and the Pony Club is a terrific way of training young jockeys of the future. Well done to all the organisers, and especially to Cheltenham for making it such a special day.

Just one comment on the Festival, as we’re now a few weeks on from it. My biggest disappointment, as in the previous year, was the flagrant breaches of the whip rule. Either the rule has to be tightened up so that the jockeys are penalised far more severely, or the prescription of the number of times you are allowed to hit a horse has to be scrapped. Two of our trainers have seen their horses beaten by other riders, in effect, cheating. Last year Pendra in the 3m 2f Kim Muir for amateur riders was given an excellent ride by Derek O’Connor before Gina Andrews threw everything at her mount Doomsday Book, ignored the whip rule completely and got up to beat Pendra by ¾ l. If O’Connor had done the same, Pendra would have won. This year Ms Parfois, in the 4m National Hunt Challenge Cup for amateur riders, was only beaten ½ l by Rathvinden under an incredibly strong ride from Patrick Mullins. Again, Mullins ignored the whip rule whereas Ms Parfois’ rider Will Biddick stayed within the rules. While Ms Parfois didn’t help her chance with a mistake at the 2nd last, she might also have won.

And then of course the Champion Jockey Richard Johnson did the same, winning the Gold Cup on Native River. A £6,000 fine is neither here nor there for Richard. In fact I felt that this was one of the rides of the decade and it really just flags up how poor the current whip rule is. It would be far better to allow local stewards complete discretion.

Aidan Coleman, on Acey Milan, gave our horse a typically fine and strong ride while staying within the rules. Young Freddie Keighley wasn’t even allowed to have a whip, but again gave his pony a fine ride.

Surely the whip rule needs to change? Personally I hope this happens by the time of next year’s Festival. Here’s hoping that we have more runners at the Olympics of our sport. What an excitement March was. I hope I live long enough to see young Freddie come over the last and storm to success up the famous hill.

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Form, Facts, Feelings and Formulations about the Festival – Reflections on Cheltenham

How was the Cheltenham Festival for you? Personally I found it the best ever from a pure enjoyment standpoint, even though it takes its toll – particularly on the liver. It has definitely been a case of recovery and detox over the last few weeks ahead of going up to Aintree for more fabulous fun on Merseyside. Hardly surprising, as it is the NH Olympics, there was an enormous amount of views shared and arguments raging throughout the Festival week. As ever in racing, mostly clap-trap, but here are ten reflections.

1. It certainly wasn’t the highest standard of Festival that we’ve seen. The general view was that both the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup were 10lbs below normal, and there weren’t that many races that were truly memorable. For me personally, the highlight was one of my favourite horses, Defi Du Seuil, winning the Triumph Hurdle for Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson. Such a hardy, game horse. Indeed I think Philip would run him every fortnight if he could. The best race to watch, I thought, was the Mares’ Championship with Apple’s Jade, Vroom Vroom Mag and Limini battling it out. Great to see Noel Fehily showing again what a champion he is, winning the top race on each of the first two days.
2. Definitely the best ever for the Irish, who are now dominant. The somewhat meaningless Prestbury Cup was a shoo-in for the Irish, with 19 vs. 9. Willie Mullins won over £750k and Gordon Elliott over £600k. The late 1980s seem more than a couple of decades ago, when it was a complete whitewash to the British on one occasion, and another year 17/1. The key question is why GB is falling behind.
3. Bloodstock prices continue to spiral into the stratosphere. I went along to the Tattersalls Ireland sale during the meeting and was flabbergasted to see 13 horses go for £100k plus, with a median of £120k and an average of £142,857. As the auctioneer said, “There is now fierce demand and a ferocious appetite for young horses with form.” You can say that again. The grass-roots owner clearly isn’t going to get a look-in.
4. The declining state of UK National Hunt racing. There was a working party to look at the decline in Northern NH racing, and maybe their remit should be broadened to the whole of the country. Yes, there is superb prize-money available at Cheltenham but it is lousy almost everywhere else. There is an interesting statistic to confirm that: the difference in prize-money between the top and everyday racing in many countries is four times, whereas in the UK it is now 100 times. Horses always follow the prize-money, and it is hardly surprising that top owners are migrating to Ireland where they can scoop up easy pickings in Graded races and easy handicaps.
5. The gap between the top and the bottom of the sport has never been greater. This really reiterates points 2-4 above. Is it time to change some of the rules and conditions for races to encourage the grass-roots owner? I did an analysis for the Racehorse Syndicates Association and amazingly there were only 40 syndicate horses at the Festival, even though there were quite a few partnerships. Many of us are now fishing in a different pond.
6. Was the drink crack-down worthwhile, and did it work? After the excesses of 2016 with some very unsavoury incidents, Cheltenham and the Jockey Club clearly needed to do something. It seems to have worked, although most people wouldn’t get many problems getting round the four-drinks-per-buyer rule. I saw lots of people buying four for themselves! There was also a crack-down in the town centre with on-the-spot fines. Sad, but necessary.
7. Rumblings about the bookmakers. There were no sympathies for the bookies, as they won on almost every race and there were numerous Festival flops, notably Douvan at 2/9, reportedly the shortest loser in a hundred years. There was more misery with Yanworth, Tombstone, Death Duty, Unowhatimeanharry and Djakadam. However it is rumoured that the BHA had a meeting with the Association of British Bookmakers, who want help in a rearguard action against imminent changes to do with fixed-odds betting terminals. I have zero sympathy with the bookmaking industry, who need to focus far more on innovation and collaboration with their racing partners.
8. Well done, ITV with their terrestrial coverage. Encouragingly for the whole sport, they lifted the viewing figures by 250,000, massively ahead of Channel 4’s last effort of 526,000 average viewers. It’s a lighter style and seems to be far more appealing to the general audience. A good start has been made by them.
9. Time to crack down on abuse of the whip again. Charlie Longsdon was desperately unlucky that his horse Pendra was collared in the final strides of the Kim Muir by Gina Andrews on 40/1 shot Domesday Book. She mercilessly flogged her horse, and rightly received a three-day ban for it. It seems really unfair that a rider who stays within the rules is beaten by one who doesn’t. Stewards should be given discretion to reverse the placings and behaviour would soon change, particularly if the culprits had to make a financial contribution to the owner for lost prize-money.
10. And possibly some other changes are needed. We are in an era now when top horses, owners and trainers can cherry-pick valuable Graded races and avoid all meaningful competition. This doesn’t do much for competitiveness, nor public interest. Should there be some qualifications added whereby horses for championship races must have competed in a minimum number of Graded races prior to the Festival? With the grass-roots owner not getting much of a look-in, should race conditions be framed to encourage them? So for example should there be more caps on second-tier races to force top owners to take their best horses up into the championship races? I would also have a syndicates-only race, but then I have been arguing for that for quite a few years.

Hopefully some food for thought there. Bring on Aintree!

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On NH Racing, Couch Potatoes and Collaboration with Bookmakers

Normally I’m criss-crossing the country supporting our horses, but with the dreadful winter and apparently never-ceasing soft ground it has been one of the quietest few months for ages, notwithstanding attending all four days of the Cheltenham Festival and the three of Aintree. However, since then I have to say that I have been “enjoying” the delights of sitting at home, wood burner blazing and chilled white wine at my elbow while cheering on my (mainly losing) bets at Sandown and more recently, Punchestown. So, as I knock on the door of becoming a pensioner, I’m also becoming a couch potato. Bliss!

It was absolutely terrific to see Richard Johnson finally become Champion Jockey after all those years of being runner-up to AP. There isn’t a better rider over jumps at the moment, and there certainly isn’t a nicer guy. He’s marvellous with owners and it is always a pleasure when he is riding one of our horses for any of our trainers but, obviously, mostly Philip Hobbs. Indeed we gave him his 100th winner of the recent season when He’s A Bully won for him at Wincanton. With typical modesty, when I complemented him on the ride, he said, “They’re always easy when they win”, despite our horse hanging badly over most of his fences.

Reflecting on the NH season, who would now be your top three horses? For me the performance on Thursday of Douvan would make him my top jumper. This was his 11th consecutive win, and he has won the last three by a cumulative 32 lengths, bagging all three top novice chases at Cheltenham, Aintree and now Punchestown. We have a Getaway with Anthony Honeyball, and he keeps referring to him as “Douvan”. Dream on, dream on. My second top horse would be the wonderful Thistlecrack, who waltzed home in the World Hurdle and then the Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle, on both occasions by 7 lengths. I’ll then have three joint thirds: Annie Power (could she become the first mare to win the Champion Hurdle twice?), Don Cossack (not just for the Gold Cup but because we have a Sholokhov 2yo who we have nicknamed “Don Caster”), and then Sprinter Sacre (as well as the superb training performance by Nicky Henderson in bringing him back, and similarly My Tent Or Yours, Simonsig and Bob’s Worth).

We couch potatoes also have lots of time to read the newspapers from cover to cover. Two articles about gambling and bookmakers caught my eye. The Sunday Times Rich List goes into the category of tittle-tattle with me, but I noticed that a number of Britain’s wealthiest tycoons in the betting industry saw their collective wealth jump by almost £3bn to £19bn in 2015/16. Amazing really when you think that their normal stance is that they aren’t making money, particularly through racing. And yet the Coates family, who founded Bet365, saw profits double to £410m and their fortune increase to £1.4bn; the co-founder of Betfair, Ed Wray’s wealth jumped by £68m after the Paddy Power merger; and that almost-destitute winner of Group 1s on the Flat, Michael Tabor, the majority stakeholder in Bet Victor, added another £25m to his net worth of £600m. Never believe a bookmaker when they tell you times are tough.

While the Sunday Times article produced steam out of my ears, another in The Times I found really encouraging. When I attended the BHA strategic forum at Newbury on 1st March, Nick Rust emphasised that three of their four strategic goals for British Racing are to grow betting participation by 5% by 2018, generate £120m of extra income for the sport and increase racecourse attendance to 7m by 2020. In the last couple of blogs I have been praising Jockey Club Racecourses for their investment in facilities and prize-money and now, according to The Times, their Racecourse Media Group (RMG) (which recently negotiated the £30m racing rights deal with ITV) are facilitating plans to bring the Tote under the control of British racing. RMG have an excellent track record and indeed in 2015 ploughed back over £80m to their 34 racecourse stakeholders via profits from Turf TV, pay-TV channel Racing UK, streaming pictures to online mobile betting sites and the current deal with Channel 4.

If you’re an avid reader of the blog you’ll know that I’m highly critical of the way the Tote, as a gaming asset, has been milked by Betfred and also the dismal lack of innovation on the part of many of the retail bookmakers, particularly the non-ABP partners Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill and Betfred. Apparently RMG is likely to broker a collaborative business model between racecourses and a number of bookmakers so that they can take the contract back over when it comes up for renegotiation in 2018. There could be significant money for racing if this collaboration were successful: when Betfred took over the Tote, they paid £265m and committed to making annual payments back into racing of around £10m. RMG intend to involve all 58 racecourses to come up with an agreement with as many bookmaking firms as possible to develop a credible alternative to Betfred’s control of the Tote. If successful it would be a really significant step forward, not just in generating more revenue for British racing but also facilitating a far more creative use of the Tote’s assets and betting possibilities, both in the UK and worldwide.

On that note, I’ll put a few more logs on the burner and pour another glass of white wine. Cheers to RMG!

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Announcement by the Government on the Racing Right – Huge Milestone for British Racing

By the time this blog is posted, I’ll be down at Cheltenham Racecourse with friends and owners cheering on the start of National Hunt’s Olympics. For the occasional visitor to Prestbury Park, everything looks rosy in the racing village – huge crowds, fabulous facilities, majestic horses, big prize-money and enormous betting turnover, with this festival alone generating over £350m. What could possibly be wrong in British racing?

Unfortunately over the last couple of years it has become increasingly apparent that the levy system set up in 1961 is no longer fit for purpose, particularly with the migration of betting operators offshore, and with the accelerating use of remote channels the levy has halved. Without legislative change, racing faced a funding crisis, which is why the “Authorised Betting Partner” arrangement was put forward to secure voluntary payments from bookmakers of 7-8% on their online profits, in exchange for access to racing sponsorship, shaping of the fixture list and preferential media rights for certain services.

In my last blog I mentioned that I had been to the BHA’s forum at Newbury on 1st March, and that I had intended to summarise that today. However only two days later, on 3rd March, the Culture Secretary John Whittingdale announced to Parliament that new funding arrangements would be created to stop this levy leakage and that all bets placed on British racing by any British-based customer, whether in a retail betting shop or remotely, would come into the scope of proposed legislative changes to be fast-tracked through the House of Commons so that hopefully a new system will be in place by April 2017. The full endorsement by the Government of the so-called Racing Right is probably the most important proposal for British racing in 50 years, and is a tremendous enabler of the BHA’s Strategy for Growth developed by Steve Harman, Chairman of the BHA and Nick Rust, the Chief Executive, together with the active support of all the major stakeholders in British racing.

Racing’s leaders are to be thoroughly commended for this development, and it is most encouraging that the relationship with government is so strong and that the tripartite structure of the BHA, the Racecourse Association and the Horsemen’s Group has provided real clarity and cohesion throughout a turbulent time with a number of the traditional bookmakers such as Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill. Indeed I think this is the first Cheltenham Festival since the early 1980s where the Gold Cup is not being sponsored by a bookmaker (on Friday it will be Timico), and Ladbrokes are no longer associated with the World Hurdle (which goes to Ryanair). Indeed it is pretty symptomatic of the behaviour of some of these “traditional” (I’m actually tempted to use a much more pejorative description) operators that their reaction remains negative. As an indicator of that, Ladbrokes have had a right old strop and are refusing to open their betting offices at Cheltenham.

I’ll do a more detailed summary of the Newbury forum in the next blog. You may remember from previous communications from me that the BHA’s strategy is all about creating the right conditions for growth for the industry and particularly: seeking £120m of extra income for the sport by 2020; 1,000 additional horses in training by 2020; betting participation up by 5% by 2018; and racecourse attendance up to 7m by 2020. Clearly there are many interdependent factors in play to achieve these goals, but without any doubt at all, replacing the levy with a new funding platform backed by legislation is probably the single most important lever for growth. Without that, there would be a foreboding sense of racing being well and truly in decline, purely as a result of woefully insufficient income to fund the growth of the whole sport. Putting that in context, and quoting from the Newbury presentation, we’re currently 38th in the global league table of owner prize-money, and if we are ever to escape that lamentable position it is absolutely vital that there is a much greater and sustainable revenue pipeline.

Since I started doing this blog four years ago, it is the first time that I have felt that racing has finally turned a corner and that the sport is genuinely beginning to arrest the decline that could easily have become terminal. Hats off to everyone involved in this extremely significant and encouraging step forward. Doubtless there will be lots of detail to sort out, but the government’s backing for the racing right is of huge importance.

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Reflections on the Best Ever Cheltenham Festival and the Launch of the OfO Partnership with the Tremendously Successful B3 Betting App

Well, it’s taken several weeks to recover from Festival fever. The general consensus was that it was the most enjoyable Festival for many years, and it is marvellous that the dowdy dowager of Prestbury Park is finally showing the benefits of a much-needed face-lift. This is not just with the £45m new grandstand but there was a sense of space and freedom of movement particularly with the plaza by the north entrance and re-siting of the tented village. It was also a Festival to remember for the magnificent gambling success by the author of this blog. This came about from attending a lengthy presentation in the Quevega Tapas Bar, over an aged Chilean madeira with salted almonds (a snip at £27.50), from the excitingly innovative betting app – B3: “Banning Brainless Betting: Insight, Foresight, Hindsight”. Once you read the summaries below, you will be wanting to sign up too, with Aintree only a week or so away. Finally, extremely interesting to see how many winners came from privately-bought French breds; a subject for a future blog.

Day 1: Supreme Novices: Douvan. 2/1. French bred, private purchase.
Incredibly, this was the first of 10 Willie Mullins favourites in the 14 non-handicaps. The result started a bookie panic on Day 1, the likes of which have rarely been seen. Could easily develop into a superstar. B3 view: the British runners are not up to much, and Timeform have Douvan rated far higher than the average Supreme winner. Bound to be a short price, but go against him at your peril.

Day 1: Arkle: Un De Sceaux. 4/6. French bred, private purchase.
Ruby Walsh desperately needed a Festival winner over fences, having not won one since Kauto Star’s Gold Cup six years earlier. A strange horse with a useless pedigree and dreadful conformation but clearly a huge engine. B3 view: the only way he can be beaten is to fall over. If he went for the Champion Chase he would be favourite. Roll over the profits from Douvan.

Day 1: Champion Hurdle: Faugheen. 4/5. Goffs store.
Unbeaten from eight starts, this was a top-drawer performance in the manner of Istabraq, even though it was a rather uneven, stop-start, tactical race. The horse has never looked like being beaten yet. B3 view: a level above everything else and hard to find a flaw. The New One lacks class and no-one should back him after the awful Haydock run. Lump on Faugheen and the tricast with Arctic Fire and Hurricane Fly. See you in Quevega’s.

Day 2: Neptune: Windsor Park. 9/2. Privately bred.
One of my favourite races, that traditionally produces good winners such as Hardy Eustace, Istabraq, and Faugheen last year. Hopefully Dermot Weld will send the winner to the Ascot Gold Cup. Is Galileo the new NH stallion? B3 view: a tricky one. Many of the horses look like plodders. The one that should act best on good ground is Windsor Park.

Day 2: RSA Chase: Don Poli. 13/8. Irish bred but bought at Arqana, France.
Had been billed as the Irish banker following a magnificent performance at Leopardstown over Christmas, and shaped like a real stayer in the Florida Pearl mould. Michael O’Leary described him as “a big, lazy b***er”. B3 view: looks the perfect candidate, having won at the Festival last year. Best form by miles. Lump on.

Day 2: Champion Chase: Dodging Bullets. 9/2. Privately bred.
A sad race in many respects, with both Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy failing to come back to their best. The winner will always have a special place in the heart of Sam Twiston Davies, who immediately indicated that the win “hopefully means I keep hold of the job for years”. B3 view: one of the simplest races of the meeting. Horses never come back, so put a line through the leaders in the betting. Winners of the Tingle Creek (10 of the last 14) and the Clarence House have an awesome record. Fill your boots with Dodging Bullets.

Day 3: JLT Chase: Vautour. 6/4. French bred, private purchase.
In all the pre-Festival publicity, Rich Ricci was adamant that this was his best chance of the meeting. The horse was devastating in last year’s Supreme Novices and had really come to hand during February. There has rarely been a more breathtaking performance, with Vautour jumping magnificently. The official handicapper, Phil Smith, gave him a provisional mark of 170 after powering home by 15 lengths. B3 view: back him, back him and back him again.

Day 3: Ryanair: Uxizandre. 16/1. French bred, bought at DBS.
Always going to be remembered as AP McCoy’s final winner at the Cheltenham Festival. If you are generous, you would say that the perfectly judged pace forced all the other horses into errors. If less so, then it is likely that AP was run away with by a horse in a first-time visor. B3 view: great value here for a horse second in the JLT and one of only two course winners.

Day 4: Triumph Hurdle: Peace And Co. 2/1. French bred, private purchase.
Michael Dickinson is always remembered for the stunning Gold Cup performance with the first five home. But at this meeting, Mullins trained the first three home in the Champion Hurdle and Henderson did the same in the Triumph. Time to invest in ear-plugs for horses. B3 view: what more do you need? Just go for the highest-rated hurdler, only Our Connor has had better form in the last 20 years and the stable vibes are really positive after an exceptional gallop a fortnight ago. May be a skinny price, but time for Peace, love and rock & roll.

Day 4: Alfred Bartlett: Martello Tower. 14/1. Irish bred, bought at Goffs.
One of my favourite races, because it is always won by a really tough stayer who is prepared to slug it out. No exception this year. B3 view: go with Barry Connell, who rates this his best Cheltenham prospect.

Day 4: Gold Cup: Coneygree. 7/1. Privately bred.
It just shows that small guys can win huge races. As can small mares – the mum, Plaid Maid, is apparently an absolute tiddler. It felt as though the guard was definitely changing, with the younger horses all prevailing. Many people felt that it was the wrong decision to run Coneygree here rather than in the RSA, with it being over 40 years since Captain Christy won it as a novice in 1974. B3 view: don’t go anywhere near Silviniaco Conti. He is quite simply a non-stayer. Last year’s Gold Cup was a farce. Forget about regressive horses such as Bob’s Worth. Take no notice of the stats. Coneygree will romp home.

Wow, what a performance, and what an accumulator. It just shows how easy it can be when all the stats are properly weighed in the balance. I’m sure you’ll want to sign up for the B3 app, even if the initial investment of £1,000 may seem a tad on the high side. Just send me an email. It is a very quick transaction via the OfO Nigerian bank account. Happy punting at Aintree!

I am always interested to hear your views so please do leave a comment. If you can't see the comment box at the bottom of this post then navigate to the post using the right hand navigation or click here > and scroll to the bottom of the page. Look forward to hearing your views. Thanks very much for sharing them.

Over-dominant Trainers and Cheltenham’s Many Frustrations

Although this blog has gone up the day after the Festival, it has actually been written on the eve of it. I know from past experience that there is no chance whatsoever of finding any time to do a blog while the racing is on, and by the weekend a combination of exhaustion and alcohol has completely numbed the brain. I can’t see any reason why this year would have been any different.

But what a great day prior to the start – reintroduced the pre-Festival round of golf at Naunton; off to the bucolic Plough at Ford for more than a few pints of Donningtons best bitter and a Festival preview evening, chaired by the estimable Stuart Machin; and all spare minutes totally immersed in the various race trends and preview evening reports.

And it is a foregone conclusion that the racing itself will have been immensely pleasurable.

So it is probably only a curmudgeon who wants to grumble about the whole Cheltenham Festival experience. This year it started with the extremely irritating charges for owners’ badges. Our Shantou Magic was scheduled to run in the Martin Pipe on Friday. All the owners and some family members were going. All of us are members at Cheltenham, and yet they saw fit to charge us £75 for each extra paddock badge, just so that we could all go in to support our horse. You gain nothing else really for your £75. There is a tatty old marquee to go to, but you have to pay for any food and drink on top. This is just yet another Cheltenham rip-off. In the last blog I berated the early closer system. We had Shantou Magic in the Coral Cup (cost £126) and obviously also in the Martin Pipe (£86). While this doesn’t sound a lot, if you multiply everything by several thousand to reflect the huge entries, it is considerable money.

I was also trying to organise meetings with friends and co-owners throughout the four days. The problem is that there are so few suitable bars to go to, and with up to 75,000 people there each day it is just about impossible to have a relaxed and convivial drink. This is in such contrast to Aintree, which would win the hospitality stakes in a hack canter, compared to Cheltenham. Hopefully when the new stand is completed, all this will change. The risk, though, is that the exploitative mind-set of Cheltenham doesn’t change, even if the infrastructure is improved. They keep sending me customer satisfaction surveys, which I always dutifully fill in. However I have seen very little improvement so far. Maybe it will have changed this year, but I doubt it.

Finally, another niggle going into the meeting was the whole issue of watering the course. I have a real concern anyway about the over-dominance of Messrs. Mullins, Nicholls and Henderson, which I just don’t think is good for the sport. So it was irksome to see two of that ilk publicly lobbying for the course not to be watered. They wanted “nature to take its course”. In this day and age, that is a totally impossible and naïve stance to adopt. Maybe it had more to do with the need for Big Buck’s, Bobs Worth and Triolo d’Alene to have good ground. Earlier in the season there were similar selfish views expounded over the framing of novice chases. I don’t have a lot of sympathy, just because they have yards chock-full of talent and want to keep them apart.

Right, that’s the curmudgeonly thoughts for this Festival out of the way. Let’s hope the racing has been superb, the hangovers manageable and the wins, huge! On now to Aintree and Punchestown.

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Cheltenham Festival – Almost There, But Do Early Closers Serve Any Real Purpose?

As always, Cheltenham fever is building up, and I’m really looking forward now to the usual fabulous racing and equally usual assault on the betting account and liver! Having said that I’ve devised a few “Cheltenham survival strategies” (mostly to do with cutting down on alcohol) to get through the rigours of the meeting. Not overly confident that will succeed. Another reason for looking forward to it, though, is that we are hoping our horse Shantou Magic will be running in either the Coral Cup or the Martin Pipe, depending on the going. He trotted up in his first two novice hurdles before Christmas and then stepped up to Grade 1 in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury, where he travelled beautifully but didn’t get home from the front, and set it up for the eventual winner Captain Cutter, before trying to give lumps of weight away in a handicap at Wincanton. Off 137 he must have a decent chance, particularly in the Martin Pipe.

Anyway, the plan is to do a slightly shorter blog this time. I’ve had feedback that they are getting too long – particularly for those who read the blog on iPhones etc. Will try to curb my War & Peace tendencies.

One Cheltenham statistic that caught my eye is the incredible 1,038 entries for the eleven handicaps. For the two races that we’re considering, there are 136 entered in the Coral Cup and a staggering 166 in the Martin Pipe. Objectively this just doesn’t make any sense at all. The ranges on OR are 111-154 for the former and 112-145 for the latter. At least half of these horses have absolutely no chance of getting in, since they are probably a stone below the standard needed. Of the other half, virtually all have multiple entries, so the trainers are bound to pull them out of some of these and / or wait to be balloted out. While trainers may not be too bothered, owners certainly should be. The loss of entry fees, which as you would expect are expensive at Cheltenham, is just a complete waste of money.

So do “early closers” such as we have at the Festival make any sense at all? They certainly give pundits something to write about in the Racing Post and national press; encourage punters to take ante-post prices (which is a double lunacy – 50% of your selections probably won’t get in, and you obviously haven’t a clue what the going will be); prompt NH aficionados to have endless debates over the merits of potential combatants; and of course, boost total prize-money without the racecourse having to dig deeper into its own coffers. On the other hand they are really expensive, needlessly restrictive, and confusing for trainers.

I ran this by a couple of our trainers this week, and they both had exactly the same view: only have two early closers each year – the Grand National and the Derby. Sounds a sensible policy to me.

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Jumping for Joy ..... but for Cheltenham 2014

Although in this blog I’ve been very critical of Cheltenham in terms of its very poor customer service and dreadful facilities, no-one can deny that as a racing festival there is nowhere that the National Hunt enthusiast would rather be in the second week of March. Knowing from bitter experience the toll that the Festival takes – total immersion in betting, Guinness and red wine, and that’s only during the day, never mind the evenings – I felt that discretion is definitely the better part of valour and that the blog should be written the previous weekend, which is what I’ve done.

So by 15th, we’ll know whether any of these amazing stats have been turned over:

• No horse has regained the Champion Hurdle crown since Comedy Of Errors in 1975. Will Hurricane Fly have prevailed?
• Only Golden Miller (1932-1936) has won at five successive Cheltenham Festivals. Will the gorgeous Quevega have equalled that record?
• Over the last 40 years, the Champion Chase has only been won by two seven-year-olds. Come on, Sprinter Sacre.
• No Feltham winner has ever gone on to win the RSA Chase. Odds stacked against Dynaste.
• Thursday at the Festival has been a roller-coaster for the Irish. They may have done well in the Jewson, but other races have been a disaster. Will this year have been any different? They haven’t won the World Hurdle since 1995; they have never won the Ryanair; and it was 1983 with the gallant Greasepaint that they last won the Kim Muir. A great day to lay the Irish horses – or was it?
• Will Long Run have been able to regain the Gold Cup? Only one other horse has ever done it – Kauto Star.

Time now to take off the anorak. The reason why I mention I’m jumping for joy is that we’ve had such a fantastic start in Owners for Owners with our four National Hunt horses, all bought over the Autumn. Houndscourt has come second on each of his two runs, and has earned a really positive Timeform comment and 115p rating; Shantou Magic came fourth in one of the hottest bumpers so far, at Ascot; Quick Decisson won on his first outing and then came third in his next bumper; and finally Lady Charisma came 6th in a hot mares’ bumper on her first outing. If I put the anorak back on again, then the question is which races might we be dreaming of for Cheltenham 2014? The Jewson or RSA Chase for Houndscourt? The Neptune or the Bartlett for Shantou Magic? The Pulteney or the Arkle for Quick Decisson? The Mares’ Hurdle for Lady Charisma?

I know in this game you should never look ahead, but wouldn’t it be absolutely fantastic if at least one of the horses managed one of the above engagements. May the dream live long through next season.

Patricians, Partners, Plebs ..... and Marodima

What is the connection between Andrew Mitchell, the Government Chief Whip, and a £2.5m guineas Galileo colt out of the dam of Authorised, purchased at last week’s Tattersalls Book 1? Both illustrate the British obsession with aristocracy, superior breeding and the supposed differences between toffs and plebs. Indeed in racing it sometimes feels as though we are trapped inside the famous sketch involving John Cleese, Ronnie Barker and Ronnie Corbett. “I am upper class, and naturally can afford the best. I own the best mares and stallions and go to the best trainers. Economic crisis – what crisis? I look down on other owners. They are plebs, and little people.” “I am middle class. I aspire to being a bigger owner, and buy the best I can afford. I envy the top owners and hope I find a Saturday horse one day. I go to mid-week race meetings but at least they are on turf. I look down on those who go to Wolverhampton and Southwell.” “I am a syndicate owner. I am lower class. I get what’s left over. I go to the all-weather and the gaff tracks. I know my place.”

The rarefied, platinum end of racing occupies a space that is completely disconnected with economic reality. It is a closed world where the top breeding interests and wealthiest people are increasingly appropriating all the real equine stars. This makes it exceptionally hard to compete. Indeed a friend of mine who had a Cheltenham Festival winner twenty years ago was lucky enough to find another star recently, but was offered a sum that was impossible to refuse, given the current economic climate and paucity of prize money in racing.

This goes right to the heart of what we are trying to do in Owners for Owners. Apart from the very privileged few, the rest of us need to link up with others and “join forces to buy better horses”. Unfortunately some of the largest syndicates are either far too expensive (with 60% + of the cost going into their overheads) or are buying low-quality “fun horses” with little probability of winning big races.

However, it can be done. I am lucky enough to be involved in Jamie Snowden’s nine-year-old warrior, Marodima. Many can remember his former exploits in the Arkle and Champion Chase. Alas, he then went into a decline with many physical problems, but has bounced back in the twilight of his career. From 12th January to 5th October this year, he has run nine times, winning five races and being placed in the other four. His rating has gone up from 112 to 143. We are now considering taking him further afield, possibly Auteuil where there is superb prize money and obstacles that suit his style of jumping. Partnering with ambitious young trainers, enthusiastic co-owners and courageous horses such as Marodima is a real privilege.